There is growing evidence for it. On the above 10-day log growth chart price action has been riding the ‘mean’ log growth line for a little over 1 year now. Throughout this whole time price action trades within an ascending channel, a bear flag. Within this bearish channel a smaller bear flag is printing.
A measured move on the smaller bear-flag confirmation would see a 40% correction in price action.
A measured move on the larger bear-flag confirmation would see a 60% correction in price action, <700 dollars. This is a fascinating level for two reasons:
1) It would be a correction to the golden ratio as was with the 2019 correction.
2) It would be a correction to the lower log growth curve, which is expected before the next bull run FOR Ethereum.
Lastly there is the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart. Two significant events:
1) The GRM (Golden Ratio Multiplier) has now failed as support (green line), a bull market requires support.
2) Price action has exited a large bear-flag.
Is it possible price action keeps rising? Sure. A convincing break of 2300-2400 would void this outlook.
Is it probable price action keeps rising? No.
For the bulls, price action must break above 2300-2400 and hold it for a 2-3 weeks.
For the bears, a correction to 1750 and under is a green light.
It is not all bad news. Would you like to Time-warp back to January 2016 and buy Ethereum for $2? It is possible and no one is talking about it. Will say elsewhere.
Ww
Weekly ETH/BTC pair.
2-week ETH/BTC large bear flag confirmation
Trade active: Broken market structure since Jul 2022. Comment: Alarms popping off all over the place.
August 28th, mark that date down. If by this time the candle body currently printing is not undone and prints the full 2-week body under the medium line, price action WILL test the bottom of the channel, circa 700 dollars depending on month.
Comment: A lot of pushback from the recent update. “You’re wrong”, “Never goes that low” Feeling the judgement.. it’s palpable.
It seems then a few folks are long..
Switching off the log growth curve makes the bear flag very clear to see. Lower highs lower lows, there is no trend reversal here. If candle bodies start closing under 1600, 700 is coming and would be something if it stopped there, 500 might be a better target.
4-day
There’s more.. the moving averages on the 3-day. Normally I do not pay attention to them but I know people do.
Notice the 3-day/200-day SMA curving downwards? Most would look at the crossing up of the 3-day/50-day SMA cross up. However it is the 200 that is more important at this moment. Look left. A moving average curving down like this is telling you something, do you know what it is?
The Blue arrows. Look left. If this were a bullish 3-day life cross price action would already be above 2000 or the 3-day/50-day SMA. Look left. Price action is far from bullish. It is rejecting the 3-day/50-day SMA. This is a HUGE red flag.
It does not matter the market. Stocks, crypto, commodities, the result will be the same.
Is it possible price action continues to move up from the macro low? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww