- We have had a lot of bullish news in recent days, and that’s why Bitcoin is going to reach up to 39k this summer, but do not be too excited because I am expecting a huge crash to 21k later this year!
- 39K is an extremely strong resistance for the bulls, mainly because of the 0.618 FIB retracement and point of control of the previous market structure. Also during the downtrend in 2022, the price created an unfilled fair value gap, which acts as resistance as well. We can fill this gap and start a major downtrend.
- This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
- At this moment, Bitcoin is inside an ascending parallel channel on the daily chart and has touched the trendline three times. 3 touches is a lot; it basically failed to make a parabolic move, so I expect this trendline to breakdown this year and start a downtrend!
- What could be the price target for the upcoming downtrend? We still have an unfilled CME GAP at 21110, which is a magnet. All CME gaps on Bitcoin were always filled, and there is a 100% historical probability of going down and filling them!
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- From the Elliott Wave perspective, this uptrend from 15k to the current price of 30k looks impulsive. It has a good angle, and there are totally no overlaps on the line chart, even though there is a small overlap on the candlestick chart. I market it as an impulse wave 12345, and we still have room to go up to finish the 5th wave.
- Look at my previous idea about “XRP” in the related section down below; it’s very important!
- That’s all for today. It’s possible for Bitcoin to go down in the short term, but I am pretty bullish, and 39 is expected this summer.
- 95% of my trades are done on altcoins, and Bitcoin has been going sideways for almost a month. The volatility is low, and where there is no volatility, there is no opportunity.
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Comment: On the 4H chart, we have a huge, expanding pattern. Liquidity can be taken, and then we can rise, or first drop to 28.5k before 39k!
Comment: Expanding pattern is the first option; the second one is parallel channel, which is also valid.
